History shows that President Trump is in a great spot heading into the 2020 election.
For starters the major story heading into the 2020 election was the China coronavirus. Since 1820 the incumbent is the winner in all 11 contests where the incumbent was running after facing a pandemic:
many experts say bad economies end incumbents careers.
This is not true. The incumbent party is 12-11 when facing re-election during a bad economy.There is a huge correlation to primary performance with this historical trend.
— David Chapman (@davidchapman141) October 11, 2020
Incumbents have won elections when the economy was down a majority of the time. But no incumbent who has received at least 75% of the primary vote has lost re-election. Donald Trump received 94% of the primary vote, which is the 4th highest all-time. Higher than Eisenhower, Nixon, Clinton, and Obama.
In fact, no incumbent who has received at least 75% of the primary vote has lost re-election. Donald Trump received 94% of the primary vote, which is the 4th highest all-time. Higher than Eisenhower, Nixon, Clinton, and Obama.
— David Chapman (@davidchapman141) October 11, 2020
Incumbents are 4-0 when facing a pandemic and social unrest:
The previous record was held by Bill Clinton with 9.7M primary votes.
We have also had riots. Incumbents are 6-6 when facing re-election during civil unrest, but 4-0 when facing a pandemic and civil unrest.
— David Chapman (@davidchapman141) October 11, 2020
Every candidate since 1988 that led in enthusiasm, won the election. Trump is crushing Biden in enthusiasm.
Every candidate since 1988 that led in enthusiasm, has won the election.
Pew gives Trump a 20 pt advantage in strength of support. The leader in this poll has won every election since 1964.
All polls show voters expect Trump to win. The expectation question is more accurate…
— David Chapman (@davidchapman141) October 11, 2020
The polls have often been wrong and may be getting worse:
There has been many elections where polls just failed to predict anything.
1948, 1952, 1976, 1980, 1996, 2000, 2012, 2014, 2016, and 2018 all had major polling errors.
In 2012, the current trend of low response rates began. Since 2012, polls have gotten worse.— David Chapman (@davidchapman141) October 11, 2020
No one who served 15 years in the Senate ever won the election, Biden served 36 years:
so the likelihood of a large response bias is high this year.
Joe Biden also has a history against him.
No one who served 15 years in the Senate has ever become president. Joe Biden has served 36 years.
— David Chapman (@davidchapman141) October 11, 2020
Currently the only thing Biden is winning is the polls but by every historical measure (and many more) Donald Trump will win the election:
The only thing that shows Biden winning are polls. By every historical metric and trend, Donald Trump will win this election.
— David Chapman (@davidchapman141) October 11, 2020
(Hat tip Red State for pointing this out.)
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