Big Data Poll’s latest generic ballot congressional survey has Republicans continuing to gain ground just a few short weeks before the pivotal 2022 midterm elections. According to the generic ballot poll, the GOP now enjoys a five-point lead over the Democrats. When broken down into different demographic groups, the Republicans have continued to be bolstered by a larger than expected number of women and college-educated voters. They also hold a whopping 16-point edge with independents.
One key observation from the latest poll is that a significant portion of the previously undecided voters has disappeared. As the number of undecided voters has lessened, both Republicans and Democrats have gained a share of the undecided voters. However, Republicans have gained a larger share of those voters.
At the end of August, 11.1% of voters polled were undecided. As of the latest poll (October 20), that number has dropped to 3.9%, a difference of 7.2%. In the August poll, Republicans enjoyed a slim lead of just over one percentage point.
Big Data Poll’s director Richard Baris seems to think that the current five-point lead may even be a conservative estimate. “That 5-point lead has the potential to grow as the late-deciders are demographically friendly to the Republican Party, largely disapprove of the president, and the issues important to their vote are not favorable to Democrats,” Baris said.
The Democrats currently lead slightly among women, as is typical. However, that lead has shrunk to just over three percentage points. Democrats have emphasized abortion as a key issue leading up to the midterms, hoping to persuade women and younger voters. However, this doesn’t seem to be adding any significant number of voters to their side. While Democratic activist groups have touted the gain in enthusiasm among their voters, the numbers don’t seem to bear that out. Republicans lead by nearly ten points in voter enthusiasm according to this most recent poll.
Many prognosticators thought that the overturning of Roe v. Wade would take steam out of the “red wave” that was considered all but guaranteed. However, this does not seem to be the case, if recent polling is to be believed. Most Americans see the general direction of the country as negative, and disapproval of Joe Biden remains very high, as only 41.7% of respondents approve of his performance. The “red wave” may actually end up looking like a “red tsunami.”